Weekly Column
Defence is the first duty of government and the world is now more dangerous than at any point since the end of the Cold War. Authoritarian states including Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China are increasingly threatening democracies to reshape the world order. This poses a direct threat to our security and prosperity – just look at the higher bills caused by Putin’s war, the impact on global trade of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, or the increased spate of cyber-attacks.
That’s why this week the Prime Minster made a major commitment to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent by 2030. This will confirm the UK’s position as the biggest defence power in Europe, second only to the USA in NATO. Over the next 6 years it means an additional £75 billion investment in our defence to make us safer at home and stronger abroad.
This is a fully-funded plan which will deliver the biggest transformation of our national defence since the Cold War. Defence spending will increase immediately with a further £500 million for Ukraine this year - for air defence, drones, munitions, vehicles, and boats - and by £3 billion in the next financial year. Defence spending is expected to reach £87 billion a year in 2030.
It sets a new standard for other major European NATO economies to follow. If all NATO countries committed at least 2.5% of their GDP to defence, our collective budget would increase by more than £140 billion.
The point of deterrence is to deter aggression and while the cost of doing so is significant, the cost of inaction would be higher still – both in terms of our security and our prosperity.
There are three immediate priorities for the new investment. First, learning the lessons of Ukraine around £10 billion will be spent in the UK to grow our munitions stockpiles including missiles and anti-tank weapons while supporting high quality jobs. Second, investing in technology and innovation such as autonomous drones, air defence, electronic warfare and cyber, and long-range missiles. Third, giving Ukraine long term support to defend against Russia’s war – if Putin wins in Ukraine he won’t stop there and he and others will be emboldened.
Of course it is essential to deliver better value for money and reforms will streamline procurement processes to avoid the complexity and delay in projects that has been seen in the past.
When I was an adviser to the then Defence Secretary a decade ago, the defence budget increased, the UK led in training Ukrainian Armed Forces after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, our Armed Forces played a leading role in defeating Daesh terrorists in Iraq and Syria, committed to renew our nuclear deterrent, and led the NATO summit where all members committed to spend 2% of GDP on defence.
Now we need to once again step up. With RAF Marham on our doorstep ready to defend UK interests, the importance of acting now to stand up for our values of freedom and democracy is paramount.
First published in Lynn News, 26 April 2024
